Russia’s War in a Global Perspective – Talk at the RSA – Friday 21st February 2025

I attended this talk, organised by the Ukrainian Institute and The Royal Society of Arts, and the place was packed. Clive Myrie was interviewing the former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba. The vast majority of attendees were Ukrainian, which meant the atmosphere was quite reserved.

For context, this talk took place in the week that Donald Trump threatened to end US support for Ukraine. There was a sense of shock and betrayal in the room; I can’t imagine how they must’ve felt a week later, when Zelensky and Trump had a major spat, live on TV!

Firstly, there was a sentiment of surprise at the fracturing of the established global order. They seemed baffled, but it’s pretty obvious: Globalisation has only benefited the wealthy and the elites. There is more money in the world than ever before, but it is all concentrated in the hands of the few. Wealth inequality is the reason the global order is fracturing. People are poor and insecure; there’s not enough to go around, so they look at other nationalities and races and see a threat.

Anyway, here are some points of interest from the talk: Dymtro says the reason the war happened is that Europe didn't welcome Ukraine into the fold at the same time it welcomed the Eastern European and Baltic countries. Ukraine should have been on the track for accession in the 90s, along with those countries. But instead, Ukraine was viewed as belonging to the Russian sphere. That's true. Why is Ukraine suddenly considered part of Europe now?

Trump wants Ukraine's minerals, but the EU already signed a deal for them in 2021. The EU is not fighting for their own rights regarding those deals. What the war in Ukraine war has exposed, is that Europe doesn't have the capabilities to fight a prolonged war. We're not spending enough, but even the vast quantities we are spending, doesn't buy much. That's for many reasons, including, as always, corruption. No country thinks it will be the one that goes to war, especially in Western Europe. They feel those days are gone, which breeds complacency.

A deal with Russia won't last, because the Ukrainians won't accept it. They'll feel embittered and resentful. It will be like Ireland and Northern Ireland. Dmytro feels that Russia and Ukraine are irreconcilable. Too much bad blood. He feels the only way for lasting peace is for one of them to be gone. Either Russia ceases to be, or Ukraine does. A very negative perspective, but maybe a truthful one.

Europe cannot go it alone without the US. Europe doesn't have the missile quantities, spare parts, and fundamentally, it lacks the intelligence and surveillance capabilities of the US, “with all due respect to MI6 and James Bond” Dymtro joked. No one comes close to the US.

Globally, if countries around the world see that the US doesn't defend it's friends, then those countries will drift into the sphere of influence of China and Russia. It was a very good talk, and definitely gave me a greater understanding of the situation, as well as greater sympathy for the plight of Ukraine. That said, this was obviously a very one-sided discussion, with absolutely no interrogation on the part of the moderator.

I mean, before the war, Ukraine didn’t meet the criteria for accession to the EU based on the EU’s fiscal and democratic requirements. Magically, none of that is an issue any more?

If that’s the case, I’m sure there are plenty of other countries that could instantly become EU members, like Albania, Georgia, Moldova, Montenegro, Serbia, Bosnia, Kosovo, etc. etc. etc.
And hopefully, Britain too? Although I’m not sure we’d pass the fiscal or democratic requirements.